Wednesday, 27 January 2010

The myth of the six pointer

It amuses me year after year the way the media hype up the six pointer. Why a Manchester United v Chelsea is more important than Manchester United v Burnley is beyond me. Now before we all jump and down, let me explain.

Every season, every club will set their target for the season. Whether it be to win the title, champions league, Europa league or avoiding relegation, there is a target. Of course each club needs to attain a certain number of points to get there. Yes it is true that if you beat a competitor for that position it is three points more for you and three points less for them. But apart from those at the end of the table, I don't think it is vital to achieving your target.

Last season, Manchester United failed to win a game against the top 4 but still won the title mostly because they got maximum points against the bottom 10. Spurs this season against the sides I expect would be bottom 10 have got 26 points out of a possible 36. This is the crucial statistic that is the difference between success and failure. Had Spurs go the maximum ala Manchester United, then Spurs would lead the Premier League. For any side, it is the failure to win against those sides who you would identify as the teams you should beat that make victory in other games vital.

Of course when you get to the bottom end that real six pointers take place. It would be in gaining the magical 40 point mark that games like hull v portsmouth, or wolves v burnley are important. In that case a match between the bottom 2 is more important than games between the top 2.

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